Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

First of all, let me say this:

It took a lot to get me back to blogging. I normally keep my opinions to myself and a select few friends who I can have intelligent conversations with, and who can debate with me without it going to personal attacks and / or name calling. I don't know how long I will keep posting, what my content will be, or even what I am trying to accomplish (if anything). 

Now, on to the show.


In the last few months we, as a nation, have been bombarded with commentaries, editorials, and news stories about the relationship between law, violence, and race in this country. We have been presented with graphics, statistics, and think tank outputs that were designed to further one agenda or another.

Here is the raw data from the FBI Uniform Crime reports in 2013 (Last year that data is available for)



Table 43 - Arrests by Race 2013

From this table it is clear that those criminals identified as white lead the number of arrests in all categories except for two: Robbery and Murder/Non-negligent Homicide. Whites lead the number of total arrests with 68.9% of total arrests for all violations, with Black or African American at 28.2% of total arrests.

Table 43A
Arrests
by Race, 2013
[11,951 agencies; 2013 estimated population 245,741,701]
Offense charged	Total arrests
	Race
	Total	White	Black or African American	American Indian or Alaska Native	Asian	Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander
TOTAL	9,014,635	6,214,197	2,549,655	140,290	105,109	5,384
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter	8,383	3,799	4,379	98	101	6
Rape3	13,515	8,946	4,229	160	173	7
Robbery	78,538	32,945	44,271	579	649	94
Aggravated assault	291,031	183,092	98,748	4,356	4,423	412
Burglary	203,089	136,990	61,709	1,966	2,196	228
Larceny-theft	990,936	677,173	284,358	16,402	12,605	398
Motor vehicle theft	52,307	34,864	15,960	685	725	73
Arson	8,364	6,198	1,925	130	107	4
Violent crime4	391,467	228,782	151,627	5,193	5,346	519
Property crime4	1,254,696	855,225	363,952	19,183	15,633	703
Other assaults	881,086	573,546	283,357	14,041	9,717	425
Forgery and counterfeiting	48,581	31,208	16,375	288	677	33
Fraud	112,920	74,682	35,958	1,145	1,094	41
Embezzlement	12,574	7,882	4,386	87	207	12
Stolen property; buying, receiving, possessing	74,541	50,237	22,687	684	862	71
Vandalism	161,078	113,842	42,566	2,951	1,638	81
Weapons; carrying, possessing, etc.	112,228	65,317	44,671	888	1,251	101
Prostitution and commercialized vice	41,946	22,666	17,378	386	1,492	24
Sex offenses (except rape and prostitution)	46,553	33,695	11,462	622	744	30
Drug abuse violations	1,204,162	815,181	365,785	9,408	12,930	858
Gambling	5,055	1,433	3,362	27	226	7
Offenses against the family and children	78,465	51,017	25,519	1,414	511	4
Driving under the influence	910,470	766,440	113,928	12,575	16,831	696
Liquor laws	277,444	222,201	40,665	10,861	3,672	45
Drunkenness	356,427	288,146	56,885	7,399	3,550	447
Disorderly conduct	372,202	231,604	129,782	7,982	2,775	59
Vagrancy	21,354	13,732	6,802	581	222	17
All other offenses (except traffic)	2,602,939	1,741,855	790,854	43,953	25,090	1,187
Suspicion	825	499	303	12	11	0
Curfew and loitering law violations	47,622	25,007	21,351	610	630	24

Table 6 - Expanded Homicide Data Murder

This table shows that murder is largely divided along racial and gender lines. 83.4% of Whites murdered were murdered by Whites, 90.1% of Blacks or African Americans were murdered by Blacks or African Americans.

When a White Offender killed a White victim, 94.2% of the time, the offender was male. When a Black Offender killed a Black Victim, 98.7% of the time the offender was male.

Expanded Homicide Data Table 6
Murder
Race, Ethnicity, and Sex of Victim by Race, Ethnicity, and Sex of Offender, 2013
[Single victim/single offender]
Race of victim	Total	Race of offender				Sex of offender
		White	Black or African American	Other1	Unknown	Male	Female	Unknown
White	3,005	2,509	409	49	38	2,661	306	38
Black or African American	2,491	189	2,245	20	37	2,217	237	37
Other race2	159	32	27	96	4	142	13	4
Unknown race	68	25	17	3	23	38	7	23

Whew. That was a lot of data. So, what does this mean?

Well...to me it shows that at least two of the narratives being pushed on News Media are flawed.

At the Law ENFORCEMENT level, there are far more arrests of White criminals than there are of Black/African American criminals. An analysis of the Judicial level (arrest to conviction, severity of sentence upon conviction, etc.) is outside the scope of this post, and bears looking into at a later date. We have been told that officers are more likely to arrest minorities, but the data does not bear this out.

We have also been told White on Black homicide (and from some sources, vice versa) is a larger issue than inter-racial homicide. This is also glaringly false. In an overwhelming number of cases, we have males of the same race killing each other.

I am not posting this to further any agenda other than the interpretation of raw data vs. force fed statistics. I have not done any reformatting, additions, or subtractions to the actual tables from the FBI, and have only done simple math to arrive at my percentages. The links above each table go to the full tables on FBI.gov, and you are welcome to check my math.

I truly believe that we can not move ahead in this country until we get back to an informed public. The person responsible for the quote in the title of this post also famously said:

“If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're mis-informed.”

 I am of the opinion that this holds double weight in an age of 24-hr news channels, social media, and echo chamber think tanks. Check the facts for yourself. When presented with a chopped-up, over-processed graphic, find out where it came from. Find out WHY they made that graphic or offered a percentage without giving the numbers they started with. Find out who is funding them. Do your own research before you jump into an argument that has implications you don't fully understand.

Before you like, share, retweet, +1, thumbs up, or give gold, make sure you understand what agenda you are furthering.